Inside COP 28

Under the Paris Agreement, parties agreed that they would review their collective progress toward achieving the Paris Agreement’s long-term goals every 5 years.

These efforts aim to ramp up ambition in new or updated nationally determined contributions, in other words, governments’ national pledges toward meeting the overall agreement. They also inform other climate policy instruments, such as the national adaptation plans. 

The first global stocktake was initiated 2 years ago in Glasgow and is set to conclude at this year’s COP in Dubai.

The 2-year process involved information collection from a wide array of sources, including scientists, governments, civil society, and other stakeholders.

During the technical assessment phase, stakeholders engaged in three technical dialogues to review the collected information and share their experiences and lessons learned in pursuing ambitious climate action. The outcomes of these exchanges were published this September in a Synthesis Report.

The third and final component, often referred to as the “political” phase of the global stocktake, will take place at COP 28. Countries will discuss the findings of the report and collaborate to create a summary of political messages with guidance on follow-up measures.

Keeping the global temperature increase within the safe threshold of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels requires immediate action to rapidly reduce the world’s production and consumption of coal, oil, and gas.

Article 2.1(c) of the Paris Agreement was a first step in this direction with its commitment to make “finance flows consistent with a pathway toward low GHG emissions and climate-resilient development.” At COP 26 in Glasgow, parties further pledged to accelerate “efforts towards the phasedown of unabated coal power and phase-out of inefficient fossil fuel subsidies.”

However, the progress toward achieving these goals has been far too slow, with the largest G20 economies disbursing a record USD 1.4 trillion of public money to support fossil fuels in 2022. The global stocktake Synthesis Report confirmed that global policies—including public financial flows—are not keeping the world on track to meet the Paris Agreement’s goals, even with a perfect implementation of the current nationally determined contributions.

At COP 28, parties must course-correct in line with the science by adopting bolder and clearer commitments to (1) phase out all fossil fuels in a just transition, (2) set clear timelines and implementation targets to align all public financial flows with low carbon emissions (3) triple renewable energy capacity by 2030 in a socially and environmentally responsible way.

Beyond the UNFCCC process, there are several diplomatic alliances worth watching at this COP that can spur momentum and mobilize further commitments on climate mitigation.  

The international community will be closely watching for announcements from the Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance, a coalition facilitating the managed phase-out of oil and gas production. New developments are also expected from the signatories of the Glasgow Statement on ending public finance for fossil fuels.

In 2015, the Paris Agreement established (in Article 7.1) the global goal on adaptation (GGA) with the core mission of enhancing adaptive capacity, strengthening resilience, and reducing vulnerability to climate change. This is becoming increasingly important as the impacts of climate change are already affecting regions across the globe.

Along with a framework for the global stocktake to assess collective progress on adaptation, the GGA aims to inform and drive much-needed financial flows to adaptation efforts.

How to put this goal into practice, however, has been a persistent question among climate negotiators and practitioners. Under the Glasgow–Sharm el-Sheikh work program launched at COP 26 in 2021, Parties have been discussing the scope and main elements of the GGA’s architecture, with the aim of adopting the framework by COP 28.

While COP 27 provided a helpful outline to take into consideration, many of the elements of the GGA framework still need to be agreed at the COP this December in Dubai.  

A comprehensive and operationalizable GGA framework that reflects key principles, such as ensuring gender equality and social inclusion, is set to be a pivotal achievement at this COP to advance global climate change adaptation efforts.

Countries around the world are facing stronger and more frequent impacts of climate change and extreme weather events. Some of these negative effects can’t be prevented or avoided despite mitigation and adaptation efforts, resulting in significant losses of human lives and livelihoods, as well as damages to economies and ecosystems. 

Such losses and damages are unequally distributed around the globe, yet current financial and governance arrangements under the Paris Agreement do not support countries in averting, minimizing, and addressing them—including post-disaster relief and recovery.

At COP 27, Parties agreed to establish new “funding arrangements and a fund” for loss and damage—a historical win for developing countries and civil society organizations almost 30 years in the making. These new funding arrangements are set to be operationalized at COP 28 in Dubai.

Transitional Committee (TC) on the operationalization of the new funding arrangements and fund established in Sharm el Sheikh addressed questions such as: Who gets to host this fund? Who gets to sit on the governing board? Which countries are eligible for this fund’s financing? Will non-economic losses and damages be included as well? 

After a year of intense intersessional negotiations, the fifth TC meeting led to a text that can be considered as a blueprint of how the new fund will look like.

While the text still holds unresolved issues, it presents a critical opportunity for countries to finalize the outstanding points at COP 28 and operationalize the fund to deliver the much-needed loss and damage finance for the most vulnerable developing countries. 

Food systems are major contributors to climate change, responsible for one third of global greenhouse gas emissions. They are also increasingly vulnerable to climate impacts. Swift, far-reaching action, together with increased investment, will be critical to addressing these challenges.  

Recognizing the issue, the United Arab Emirates has placed food systems transformation at the heart of its COP 28 Presidency. The Sharm el-Sheikh Joint Work on Implementation of Climate Action on Agriculture and Food Security—the main channel for formal negotiations on climate and agriculture within the UNFCCC—will continue work begun under the Koronivia Joint Work on Agriculture, with a greater focus on implementation. Negotiators are expected to finalize the content and the structure of the work program in Dubai.  

The global stocktake Synthesis Report highlighted the importance of food and agriculture systems transformation in achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement. The conclusion of the process at COP 28 in Dubai should inspire greater inclusion of food systems-specific targets and indicators in nationally determined contributions and national adaptation plans. 

Outside the negotiations, heads of state are encouraged to sign the Emirates Declaration on Resilient Food Systems, Sustainable Agriculture, and Climate Action and to reflect this commitment in domestic food systems transformation policy.